Monte Carlo
Issue of HERA
Journal of Human and
Ecological Risk Assessment
(HERA Vol. 2, No. 4)
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction:
Commemoration of the 50th
Anniversary of Monte Carlo (Barbara G. Callahan)
Perspective:
Using Monte Carlo Analysis to
Quantify Uncertainty in Ecological Risk Assessment: Are We
Gilding the Lily or Bronzing the Dandelion? (Dwayne R.J.
Moore)
Debate/Commentary:
Classical and Bayesian
Approaches: Evolution or Revolution, Debate/ Commentary
Introduction (Peter M. Chapman)
From Science to
Decision-Making: The Applicability of Bayesian Methods to
Risk Assessment (Ryan A. Hill)
Monte Carlo Analysis:
Classical and Bayesian Applications (William J. Warren-Hicks
and Jonathan B. Butcher)
Probability Concepts in
Ecological Risk Assessment (Michael Power)
Risk Analysis in Fisheries
and Natural Resource Management (Ray Hilborn)
Bayesian Statistics:
Evolution or Revolution? (Eric P. Smith, Keying Ye, and
Angela R. McMahan)
Monte Carlo and Bayesian
Statistics (Michael Lavine)
An Overview of Monte Carlo, A
Fifty Year Perspective (Pamela Rugen and Barbara Callahan)
Invited Papers
Monte Carlo Modeling of
Childhood Lead Exposure: Development of a Probabilistic
Methodology for Use with the USEPA IEUBK Model for Lead in
Children (Philip E. Goodrum, Gary L. Diamond, James M.
Hassett, and David L. Johnson)
A Monte Carlo Assessment of
Mercury Exposure and Risks from Dental Amalgam (G. Mark
Richardson and Margaret Allan)
Characterizing, Simulating,
and Analyzing Variability and Uncertainty: An Illustration
of Methods Using an Air Toxics Emissions Example (H.
Christopher Frey and David S. Rhodes)
Distributions of Job Tenure
for U.S. Workers in Selected Industries and Occupations
(Cynthia D. Shaw and David E. Burmaster)
Monte Carlo Modeling with
Uncertain Probability Density Functions (William J. Brattin,
Timothy M. Barry, and Nancy Chiu)
Absorption Adjustment Factor
(AAF) Distributions for Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs)
(Brian Magee, Paul Anderson, and David Burmaster)
Estimating Exposure
Distributions: A Caution for Monte Carlo Risk Assessment
(Edward J. Stanek)
An Introduction to
Second-Order Random Variables in Human Health Risk
Assessments (David E. Burmaster and Andrew M. Wilson)
Monte Carlo Modeling of
Epidemiological Studies (Alexander Shlyakhter, Leonid Mirny,
Alexander Vlasov, and Richard Wilson)
The Use of Two-Stage Monte
Carlo Simulation Techniques to Characterize Variability and
Uncertainty in Risk Analysis (Joshua T. Cohen, Michael A.
Lampson, and Teresa S. Bowers)
A General Framework for the
Analysis of Uncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment (S.N.
Rai, D. Krewski, and S. Bartlett)
What Monte Carlo Methods
Cannot Do (Scott Ferson)
Going Beyond the Single
Number: Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Improve Risk
Management (Kimberly M. Thompson and John D. Graham)
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